Market mechanics, measured.
Most explanations of order flow are handed down rather than tested. Every article here takes one widely repeated claim and checks it against QuantumFlow's own trade archive, with the method and the period stated so you can argue with it. Including the claims that do not survive.
An hourly rule for absorbed buying selects the quietest hours in the sample, not the busiest. Requiring genuine volume removes the effect entirely, across 31,290 BTC hours.
Bitcoin volume peaks around 14:00 to 15:00 UTC, but displayed depth is strongest earlier. We measured spread, book depth, volume and volatility by hour.
We matched CVD-divergence hours to price declines of similar size across four markets. No market produced a conventionally significant 24-hour effect.
Negative BTC funding preceded stronger seven-day returns in every calendar year tested. Extremely positive funding did not, and its carrying cost erased the pooled price gain.
We tested large-trade flow across ten Binance markets and found no reliable directional edge beyond the information already present in the whole tape.
The largest BTC long-liquidation hours were followed by stronger returns, but the residual effect became uncertain once we matched on the size of the drop.
A 4.7-year test across six Binance markets found no reliable seven-day forecast from unusually high or low long-account ratios.
Bid-heavy books predicted higher prices across five Binance perpetual markets, with a spread of 9.4 points that survived a block bootstrap. The gross return still stayed below taker fees.
Measured in contracts rather than dollars, open interest added no significant 24-hour signal beyond the price move itself. Tested across five Binance markets.
Five-minute trade prices appeared to show a leader. Order-book midpoints cut the effect by about 85%, and no market led consistently across BTC, ETH and SOL.