Market mechanics, measured.

An hourly rule for absorbed buying selects the quietest hours in the sample, not the busiest. Requiring genuine volume removes the effect entirely, across 33,114 BTC hours.

Bitcoin volume peaks around 14:00 to 15:00 UTC, but displayed depth is strongest earlier. We measured spread, book depth, volume and volatility by hour.

We matched CVD-divergence hours to price declines of similar size across four markets. No market produced a conventionally significant 24-hour effect.

Negative BTC funding preceded stronger seven-day returns in every calendar year tested. Extremely positive funding did not, and its carrying cost erased the pooled price gain.

We tested large-trade flow across ten Binance markets. Extreme large selling was followed by about 2 basis points of next-hour weakness, smaller than a taker fee. The other three planned tests did not separate from zero.

The largest BTC long-liquidation hours were followed by stronger returns, but the residual effect became uncertain once we matched on the size of the drop.

A 4.9-year test across six Binance markets found no reliable seven-day forecast from unusually high or low long-account ratios. Crowded longs were followed by a small average gain, not a fall.

Bid-heavy books predicted higher prices across five Binance perpetual markets, with a spread of 9.5 points that survived a block bootstrap. The gross return still stayed below taker fees.

Measured in contracts rather than dollars, open interest added no significant 24-hour signal beyond the price move itself. Tested across five Binance markets.

Five-minute trade prices appeared to show a leader. Order-book midpoints cut the effect by about 88%, and no market led consistently across BTC, ETH and SOL.